The telecommunications industry continues to insist that functions such
as entertainment and home shopping will be the driving forces behind
the construction of the Information SuperHighway. Yet, there is a
growing body of evidence that suggests that consumers want more
information-related services, and would be more willing to pay for these
than for movies-on-demand, video games, or home shopping services.
Two surveys published in October 1994 had very similar findings. According
to the Wall Street Journal (Bart Ziegler, "Interactive Options May be Unwanted, Survey Indicates," Oct. 5, 1994, page B8), a Lou Harris poll found that "a total of 63% of consumers surveyed said they would be interested in using their TV or PC to receive health-care information, lists of government services, phone numbers of businesses and non-profit groups, product reviews and similar information. In addition, almost three-quarters said they would like to receive a customized news report, and about half said they would like some sort of communications service, such as the ability to send messages to others. But only 40% expressed interest in movies-on-demand or in ordering sports programs, and only about a third said they want interactive shopping."
A survey commissioned by MacWorld (Charles Piller, "Dreamnet", MacWorld,
Oct 1994, pages 96-105) which claims to be "one of the most extensive
benchmarks of consumer demand for interactive services yet conducted"
found that "consumers are much more interested in using emerging networks
for information access, community involvement, self-improvement, and
communication, than for entertainment." Out of a total of 26 possible
online capabilities, respondents rated video-on-demand tenth, with only
28% indicating that this service was highly desirable. Much more desirable
activities included on-demand access to reference materials, distance
learning, interactive reports on local schools, and access to information
about government services and training. Thirty-four percent of the sample
was willing to pay over $10 per month for distance learning, yet only 19%
was willing to pay that much for video-on-demand or other entertainment
services.
If people say they desire informational services more than entertainment
and shopping (and say that they're willing to pay for it), why does the
telecommunications industry continue to focus on plans oriented towards
entertainment and shopping? Because, in the long run, the industry believes
that this other set of services will prove more lucrative. After all, there
are numerous examples in other domains of large profits made from
entertainment and shopping services, and very few such examples from
informational services.
It is also possible that the industry believes that popular opinion can
easily be shifted from favoring informational services to favoring
entertainment and shopping. For several years telecommunications industry
supporters have been attempting to gain support for deregulation of that
industry by citing the wealth of interesting informational services that
would be available if this industry was freed from regulatory constraints.
Sectors of the industry may well believe that the strength of consumer
desire for the Information SuperHighway to meet information needs
(as shown in these polls) is a result of this campaign. According to this
argument, if popular opinion can be swayed in one direction, it can be
swayed back in the other direction
Popular discourse would have us believe that the Information SuperHighway
will just be a faster, more powerful version of the Internet. But there
are key differences between these two entities, and in many ways they are
diametrically opposed models.
Privacy
The metering that will have to accompany pay-per-view on the Information
SuperHighway will need to track everything that an individual looks at
(in case s/he wants to challenge the bill). It will also give governmental
agencies the opportunity to monitor reading habits. Many times in the past
the FBI has tried to view library circulation records to see who has been
reading which books. In the online age, service providers can track
everything a user has bought, read, or even looked at. And they plan to sell
this information to anyone willing to pay for it.
In an age where people engage in a wide variety of activities online,
service providers will amass a wealth of demographic and consumption
information on each individual. This information will be sold to other
organizations who will use it in their marketing campaigns. Some
organizations are already using computers and telephone messaging systems
to experiment with this kind of demographic targeting. For example, in
mid-1994, Rolling Stone magazine announced a new telephone-based ordering
system for music albums. After using previous calls to build "a profile of
each caller's tastes ... custom messages will alert them to new releases
by their favorite artists or recommend artists based on previous selections.
" ("Phone Service Previews Albums" by Laura Evenson, San Francisco Chronicle,
6/30/94, p D1) Some of the early experiments promoted as tests of
interactive services on the Information SuperHighway were actually designed
to gather demographic data on users. ("Interacting at the Jersey shore:
FutureVision courts advertisers for Bell Atlantic's test in Toms River",
Advertising Age, May 9, 1994)
Conclusion
No one can predict the future with certainty. But we can analyze and
evaluate predictions by seeing how they fit into patterns. And an analysis
of the discourse around the Information SuperHighway shows remarkable
similarity to that which surrounded cable TV nearly a quarter-century
before. Though there is no guarantee that the promises of this technology
will prove as empty as those of the previous technology, we can safely
say that certain powerful groups are more interested in promoting hype
than in weighing the possible effects of the Information SuperHighway.
The Information SuperHighway will not just be a faster Internet; in fact
it is possible that many of the elements that current Internet users
consider vital will disappear in the new infrastructure. Though the
average consumer will have many more options than they do from their home
television today, attempts at mass distribution will likely favor
mainstream big-budget programs over those that are controversial or appeal
to a narrower audience. It is possible that diversity available from all
sources will decrease and independent productions will be even further
marginalized. And the adoption of an asynchronous architecture
(a ten-lane highway coming into the library or home with a tiny path
leading back out) would pose a significant barrier to those seeking to be
information providers, and would favor a model of relatively passive
consumption. And the kind of massification and leveling of culture that
will follow is likely to be similar to the effects of broadcast television
on culture.
Two surveys published in October 1994 had very similar findings. According
to the Wall Street Journal (Bart Ziegler, "Interactive Options May be Unwanted, Survey Indicates," Oct. 5, 1994, page B8), a Lou Harris poll found that "a total of 63% of consumers surveyed said they would be interested in using their TV or PC to receive health-care information, lists of government services, phone numbers of businesses and non-profit groups, product reviews and similar information. In addition, almost three-quarters said they would like to receive a customized news report, and about half said they would like some sort of communications service, such as the ability to send messages to others. But only 40% expressed interest in movies-on-demand or in ordering sports programs, and only about a third said they want interactive shopping."
A survey commissioned by MacWorld (Charles Piller, "Dreamnet", MacWorld,
Oct 1994, pages 96-105) which claims to be "one of the most extensive
benchmarks of consumer demand for interactive services yet conducted"
found that "consumers are much more interested in using emerging networks
for information access, community involvement, self-improvement, and
communication, than for entertainment." Out of a total of 26 possible
online capabilities, respondents rated video-on-demand tenth, with only
28% indicating that this service was highly desirable. Much more desirable
activities included on-demand access to reference materials, distance
learning, interactive reports on local schools, and access to information
about government services and training. Thirty-four percent of the sample
was willing to pay over $10 per month for distance learning, yet only 19%
was willing to pay that much for video-on-demand or other entertainment
services.
If people say they desire informational services more than entertainment
and shopping (and say that they're willing to pay for it), why does the
telecommunications industry continue to focus on plans oriented towards
entertainment and shopping? Because, in the long run, the industry believes
that this other set of services will prove more lucrative. After all, there
are numerous examples in other domains of large profits made from
entertainment and shopping services, and very few such examples from
informational services.
It is also possible that the industry believes that popular opinion can
easily be shifted from favoring informational services to favoring
entertainment and shopping. For several years telecommunications industry
supporters have been attempting to gain support for deregulation of that
industry by citing the wealth of interesting informational services that
would be available if this industry was freed from regulatory constraints.
Sectors of the industry may well believe that the strength of consumer
desire for the Information SuperHighway to meet information needs
(as shown in these polls) is a result of this campaign. According to this
argument, if popular opinion can be swayed in one direction, it can be
swayed back in the other direction
Popular discourse would have us believe that the Information SuperHighway
will just be a faster, more powerful version of the Internet. But there
are key differences between these two entities, and in many ways they are
diametrically opposed models.
Privacy
The metering that will have to accompany pay-per-view on the Information
SuperHighway will need to track everything that an individual looks at
(in case s/he wants to challenge the bill). It will also give governmental
agencies the opportunity to monitor reading habits. Many times in the past
the FBI has tried to view library circulation records to see who has been
reading which books. In the online age, service providers can track
everything a user has bought, read, or even looked at. And they plan to sell
this information to anyone willing to pay for it.
In an age where people engage in a wide variety of activities online,
service providers will amass a wealth of demographic and consumption
information on each individual. This information will be sold to other
organizations who will use it in their marketing campaigns. Some
organizations are already using computers and telephone messaging systems
to experiment with this kind of demographic targeting. For example, in
mid-1994, Rolling Stone magazine announced a new telephone-based ordering
system for music albums. After using previous calls to build "a profile of
each caller's tastes ... custom messages will alert them to new releases
by their favorite artists or recommend artists based on previous selections.
" ("Phone Service Previews Albums" by Laura Evenson, San Francisco Chronicle,
6/30/94, p D1) Some of the early experiments promoted as tests of
interactive services on the Information SuperHighway were actually designed
to gather demographic data on users. ("Interacting at the Jersey shore:
FutureVision courts advertisers for Bell Atlantic's test in Toms River",
Advertising Age, May 9, 1994)
Conclusion
No one can predict the future with certainty. But we can analyze and
evaluate predictions by seeing how they fit into patterns. And an analysis
of the discourse around the Information SuperHighway shows remarkable
similarity to that which surrounded cable TV nearly a quarter-century
before. Though there is no guarantee that the promises of this technology
will prove as empty as those of the previous technology, we can safely
say that certain powerful groups are more interested in promoting hype
than in weighing the possible effects of the Information SuperHighway.
The Information SuperHighway will not just be a faster Internet; in fact
it is possible that many of the elements that current Internet users
consider vital will disappear in the new infrastructure. Though the
average consumer will have many more options than they do from their home
television today, attempts at mass distribution will likely favor
mainstream big-budget programs over those that are controversial or appeal
to a narrower audience. It is possible that diversity available from all
sources will decrease and independent productions will be even further
marginalized. And the adoption of an asynchronous architecture
(a ten-lane highway coming into the library or home with a tiny path
leading back out) would pose a significant barrier to those seeking to be
information providers, and would favor a model of relatively passive
consumption. And the kind of massification and leveling of culture that
will follow is likely to be similar to the effects of broadcast television
on culture.